Comparison of the Stability and Accuracy of Deterministic Project Cost Prediction Methods in Earned Value Management

Completing a project on time and budget are essential factors for the success of any project. One technique that allows predicting final cost is earned value management (EVM). In this technique, different mathematical methods have been proposed over last 30 years. These formulas make use activities’ actual costs durations as progresses. EVM widely used by many professionals. However, very few studies compared stability accuracy multiple existing (commonly abbreviated estimated at completion, EAC). This study compares deterministic prediction (EAC) in EVM. For purpose, representative database 4100 simulated projects various topological structures used. Our results suggest with simplest configurations achieve better performance. Knowing which most stable accurate will help practitioners choose reliable techniques when they managing their own real contexts.